The following is my analysis of the latest numbers put out by Survey USA. I am choosing to analyze this both because I want to explain to folks what is going on but also because SUSA does provide crosstabs, making analysis easier. This is NOT just another poll diary.
Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…
The Full SurveyUSA Poll is available at this link: http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=2587d5be-1ce6-48a3-ad0d-3245a66a7a00.
General Comments:
This poll is fairly believable for the most part. The sampling looks good, although some of the cross-tabs are a little weird (like McBush winning among Hispanics). Still, they slightly oversampled Rs, and Ds to a lesser extent, giving Ds only a 7% reg. edge, when the real edge is around 9%. I’m not quite sure what they consider to be the “Portland Region” but even that makes sense. Some of the other demographic trends also suggest a fairly good sample, such as the percentage of regular churchgoers, which is within the accepted range of 30-35% (OR is the least churchgoing state in the US).
President:
Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):
Obama-52% (48%).
McCain-41% (45%).
Obama strengths: Obama wins among men and women, but of course much more substantially among the later. Obama wins among independents by 14%. Obama also wins among those who say that anything besides terrorism or immigration are the most important issue (which only adds up to 13% of voters). The most notable spread, however, is that, among the 65% of Oregonians who support alternatives to drilling, Obama wins 70-24%.
McCain strengths: Strength is a relative term in this case but McCain is doing okay outside of Portland, only losing by 5% versus 15% inside Portland. He is doing well among those who like Bush, which, and I am proud of Oregon for this, only includes 24% of voters. There are no Palin approval numbers, so it is hard to tell directly what impact she has had.
What it means: Obama is well positioned to take Oregon fairly easily.
US Senate:
Top Line (August Numbers in Parenthesis):
Merkley-44% (37%)
Smith-42% (49%)
Brownlow (Constitution)-8% (8%).
Merkley strengths: Merkley is currently winning men, according to this poll and tied among women. If he wins men, he wins the election without a doubt. Merkley is also carried by his strength among younger voters, winning by 18% there. He has stopped a lot of the bleeding of Dems to Smith, historically a Smith strength, or has at least grabbed an equal number of Republicans. Finally, among those who do not attend church regularly (42% of Oregonians), Merkley enjoys a 33% lead.
Smith strengths: Smith remains fairly strong with many of the groups that have historically backed his candidacy, moderates, losing only by 7%. He is favored by a substantial margin by voters older than 65, winning by 9%. He is winning outside of Portland, by only by 3%, not a great showing for someone who is from Pendleton. A Smith voter is a McCain voter as well, perhaps not surprising given their shared party ID.
What it means: Smith is in trouble. His approval rating is down to 31% and among independents only 29% approve of him. Merkley has nowhere to go but up, as although his disapproval is a little high (35% versus 30% approval) he is the challenger and is still relatively unknown. If you ask me today, Merkley will more likely than not win this fall.
Let me know what you think.
Oregon WILL be blue this fall…
We’re currently expected to take at least four seats: VA, NM, NH, and CO. AK, OR, and NC are leaning our way, making that seven. If MN and MS* both swing our way, we only need one more–and right now I’d say the most likely flip after that is KY. #11 is probably GA. After that are probably the ID, OK, and NE races; TX and KS probably follow those.
Speaking of NE, didn’t Johanns serve as part of the Bush administration?